Kenya Competitive Tree Fruit: International Market Analysis

While Kenya’s vegetable and floral programs have set the standard for success in global horticultural exports for the past two decades, its role as an exporter of fresh fruits has been negligible. This despite the same favorable conditions of climate, soil, intellectual capital and entrepreneurship which have been fundamental to its success in the vegetable and flower sectors. NTF II’s Kenyan Competitive Tree Fruit (KCTF) Project is designed to identify obstacles to the fruit sector's commercial success and to develop strategies for overcoming them so Kenya’s fruit growers and exporters can write the next chapter in the country’s horticultural success story.

Three commodities, avocado, mango and passion fruit, were chosen to focus research upon. Following detailed studies examining the production, marketing, logistics and standards environments for these products, Commodity Business Plans (CBPs) were created. The market analysis addresses all market destinations – domestic, regional and international – as well as product forms – fresh, dried and concentrate – which are, or could become, available to Kenyan growers and shippers.

The reports provide a broad overview of the world market situation, covering all nations playing important roles in the production, export and import of the three focus commodities, as well as a regional market analysis which zeroes in on the leading importing countries or trading blocs for each fruit. In the case of avocados, for example, the United States (at 50%), the European Union (at 33%) and Japan (at 9%) combined to account for over 92% of global avocado imports in 2010. Markets that buy fewer world commodities but which may constitute destinations well suited to Kenyan exports are also explored.

Each report assesses Kenyan production and shipments in terms of global trade of the commodity and evaluates the volume and price performance of Kenya’s top five export destinations. Where relevant, these Kenya-specific reviews gauge the perceptions of importers and traders in principal export destinations about the quality, price and compliance of Kenyan goods and include, where possible, specific recommendations from importers.

The reports also identify key market considerations for each CBP development team and for the Commodity Working Groups (CWG) which will ultimately be responsible for approving and piloting the CBPs. These considerations range from questions of quality control, traceability and varietal suitability to techniques for the cost-effective transportation, market development and promotion of each focus commodity.

Coupled with reports on production, logistics and standards, these studies will give CWGs sufficient data to generate and implement effective, bankable business plans for the integrated development of avocado, mango and passion fruit. These business plans will serve as templates for the commercial development of the many other fruits which are, or easily could be, produced competitively in Kenya.